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The Fertility Gap/Roe Effect
Politics, Quick Link Comments (5)
The Fertility Gap – Discussion of a political problem for the Democrats that sounds a whole lot like James Taranto’s “Roe Effect”
MickC @ August 22, 2006
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Both theories are, to my mind, a crock of shit.
I come from a hugely conservative family. I went to Catholic school. My parents are loyal Republicans. My mother proudly voted for Ollie North when he ran for Senator in Virginia. We were bussed to DC once a year to march in the Right To Life parade.
I am not conservative. So clearly there is no genetic component to political views. It’s not like the shakers, here. People do not always inherit their parents political viewpoints.
I also think that pretending only liberals get abortions (and no conservatives do) is ignoring the reality of pregnancy in this country.
I do think there are issues. I think too many conservatives are afraid of education. They’re afraid of opposing viewpoints. They’re afraid of anything that doesn’t fit their world view. This means that their kids are less likely to get out and experience other viewpoints. They’re less likely to have a college education. They’re less likely to ever travel out of their county or state. They’re less likely to have the opportunity to grow and learn about the world outside their parent’s worldview.
But I really don’t think this has to do with the number of children anyone has. It has more to do with treating your kids as little clones you can control and make into what you want them to be.
No, you’re not a conservative, Bisky. But I think more than anything these theories are the result of your statement:
The fact is that parents on both ends of the political spectrum do this. With a birth gap, you would expect that to translate into additional voters for the group on the high end of that gap.
Yes, there will be some drift between groups (and you are a good example of that), but if the relationship between parental political thought and offspring political thought is statistically significant, then it shouldn’t be surprising that no matter the reason for the lower birth rates, this gap exists and is widening.
This theory has alarmed some conservatives here in Texas because of the birth rate among Hispanics, who traditionally vote Democrat. In some communities, including the one where I graduated high school, Hispanics either already constitute a majority of the population or will within 20 years.
And that is the kicker, is the relationship statistically significant. AFAIK no one who is positing this liberals are aborting themselves out of existance has any evidence or studies to show that there is some statistically valid relationship.
Until and unless you have even a modicum of data, go away. When you have any data, then come talk to me.
Just as a matter of ease, I’ll point you to http://youngcitizensurvey.org/social.htm. It’s a 2002 survey of 15 – 25 year olds. One of its findings quoted from the executive summary: “Parents’ behavior affects the range of their children’s political views and behaviors. In multivariate models that control for demographic differences, among the three parental behaviors, discussing politics is the strongest predictor of a range of young adults’ attitudes and behaviors.” That includes controlling for: party identification, age, education, gender, race and native status, region, demographic area (urban, suburban, rural), work status, student status, church attendance, and marriage and parental status.
The standard figure, given both in my poly sci classes as an undergrad and in the first article cited, is something around 80% of children will vote along the same standard ideological lines as their parents.
Looks like I’m in that 20 percent. My parents are more conservative than I am, I can tell you that.